kr2y510
konfederata targowicki
- 12 770
- 24 728
Ale to nie ja wyszukuję takich informacji, a foliarze. Oni niekoniecznie muszą znać takie serwisy jak np. Archive.org.
Jest w większości państw obowiązek co do informacji publicznej.
-
Forum Libertarian ma swój regulamin.
Co to były za "początkowe działania"? Po czym komentatorzy wnoszą że był w planie blitzkrieg?
Sorasil
Well-Known Member
- 160
- 488
Początkowe działania to na przykład operacje desantowe i próby zajęcia wielu kluczowych punktów w pierwszych dniach walki, chociażby atak na lotnisko koło Kijowa, by szybko przerzucić tam siły i mieć otwartą drogę do stolicy, swego czasu bardzo popularne było to wideo:
View: https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1496807049203642375
O zmianie strategii informowali sami Ukraińcy: https://forsal.pl/swiat/ukraina/art...e-udal-terror-i-dzialania-psychologiczne.html
Przypominam, jakie były jeszcze niedawno obawy o to, by Rosjanie nie zajęli szybko Kijowa, jak wstawało się i patrzyło, czy Kijów jest nadal ukraiński, czy Zełenski nadal żyje. Ukraińcy jednak wyparli wroga i okazali wolę walki od samego początku. Zresztą niedawny marsz na Kijów znowu został (przynajmniej na razie) odparty i Rosjanie znowu musieli zmienić plany.
Te dwa komentarze dobrze pokazują, jak wyglądały pierwsze dwa dni walk:
24 luty
25 luty
Przeżyjmy to jeszcze raz
- Moderator
- #324
- 8 902
- 25 794
Nie zgadzam się. Główne zagrożenie polega jedynie na tym, że Rosjanie zabezpieczą sobie wybrzeże i dzięki temu zdołają przywrócić zaplecze i logistykę drogą morską z Krymu, co pozwoli na zabezpieczenie większego wolumenu paliwa, amunicji i sprzętu. Jeśli Ukraińcy im na to nie pozwolą i armia rosyjska będzie musiała sobie radzić tak jak do tej pory, im głębiej będzie wchodzić, tym trudniej będzie jej utrzymywać dostawy paliwa i amunicji.
Do tej pory, z tego co widzieliśmy, są w tym absolutnie beznadziejni. A ponieważ chcą okupować wielki kraj bez wystarczających sił, będzie można z nimi grać w ciuciubabkę i atakować ich zaplecze.
Już teraz wiemy, że desperacko ściągają wszystkie ciężarówki z pozostałych części kraju, żeby łatać jakoś tę logistykę i Ukraińcy dalej powinni skupić się na odcinaniu rosyjskiej armii od zaopatrzenia, być może poświęcając nawet miasta.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4wRdoWpw0w
To będzie wojna na lepszą logistykę. Bo Ukraińcy też mogą zdobywać łatwo sprzęt na ruskich w wielkich ilościach na północy, ale na nic im się nie przyda, jeśli nie znajdą sposobu, aby go uruchomić i dostarczyć na front południowy.
I poprawnie. Rzecz w tym, że Ukraińcy uzyskują faktyczną pomoc. To nie jest sytuacja Polski z II WŚ. Więc jest to coś warte.
Nie mają większych szans powodzenia dla takiego kroku, o czym przebąkuje się także po ich stronie.
Najciekawszy tekst wyciągnął @tosiabunio. Zobacz.
View: https://www.facebook.com/vladimir.osechkin/posts/4811633942268327
View: https://www.facebook.com/IGORSUSHKORACING/posts/10158862499670662
My translation of the analysis of the current situation in Russia by an alleged active FSB analyst. Buckle up for a long thread and definitely please share far & wide. The full text is over 2000 words. This is a highly insightful look behind the curtain - covers many subjects. I will add clarification comments inside parenthesis where necessary. So, let's roll:
I have hardly slept at all these days, at work at almost all times, I have brain-fog. Maybe from overworking, but I feel like I am in a surreal world.
The Pandora’s Box is open – a real global horror will begin by the summer – global famine is inevitable. Russia and Ukraine were the main suppliers of grain to the world. This year’s harvest will be smaller and logistical problems will result in a catastrophe. (MY COMMENTARY: I disagree that this will result in global famine.)
I can’t say what guided those in charge to decide to proceed with the execution of this operation, but now they are methodically blaming us (FSB). We are being scolded for our analysis. Recently, we have been increasingly pressured to prepare more reports. All of these political consultants and politicians and that powers-that-be are causing chaos. Most importantly, no one knew that there will be such a war – it was concealed from everyone. For example – you are being asked to analyze various outcomes and consequences of a meteorite attack (MY COMMENTARY: Here he most likely means the West’s sanctions) – you research the mode of attack, and you are being told that it’s just a hypothetical and not to stress on the details, so you understand the report is only intended as a checkbox, and the conclusions of the analysis must be positive for Russia, otherwise you basically get interrogated for not doing good work. So, you have to write that we have all necessary measures available to nullify the effects of a given type of attack. We are completely overworked. But then it turns out that the hypothetical has turned into reality, and the analysis we’ve done on that hypothetical is total trash.
We have no answer to the sanctions because of this.
No one knew there’d be such a war, so no one prepared for these sanctions.
It’s the flipside of the secrecy – since everyone was kept in the dark, how could we prepare for it?
Kadyrov has gone nuts. We were very close to a conflict with him because the Ukrainians through their disinformation about having received intel from the FSB on his squad in Kyiv. His squad was absolutely demolished before they even began to fight and they got blown to pieces. I do not have any info that it was an FSB leak to Ukraine, so I’d give it a 1-2% chance – but can’t exclude this possibility completely.
Our Blitzkrieg has totally collapsed. It is impossible to complete the task: If Zelensky and his deputies were captured in the first 3 days, all key buildings also captured, and they were forced to read an address of their surrender to the country, then Ukraine’s resistance would have likely dissolved to a minimal level. Theoretically. But then what? Even in this IDEAL outcome, there remained an unsolvable problem: Who is the counterparty to our negotiations? If we remove Zelensky – fine – who is going to sign the agreement? If with Zelensky, then that agreement is worthless after we remove him.
ОПЗЖ (The Opposition Party in Ukraine collaborating with Russia) has refused to cooperate. Medvechuk, the coward, ran away. There is another leader – Boyko, but he refused too, even his own people won’t understand him. Wanted to bring back Tsaryova, but even our guys are against him here in Russia. Bring back Yanukovich? But how? If we are saying we can’t occupy, then the newly formed government will be overthrown in 10 minutes as soon as we leave.
To occupy? Where would we find that many people? Commandant’s office, military police, counter-intelligence, security – even at minimum resistance from the Ukrainians, we’d need over 500,000 people, not including supply & logistics. There’s a rule, if you try to cover for bad quality leadership with quantity, you’ll make everything worse. And I repeat this would be the problem in the IDEAL SCENARIO, which does not exist.
And what now? We cannot announce general mobilization for two reasons: 1) Mobilization will implode the situation inside Russia: political, economic, and social.
2) Our logistics are already over-extended today. We can send a much large contingent into Ukraine, and what would we get? Ukraine – a territorially enormous country, and their hate towards us is astronomical. Our roads simply cannot accommodate the resupply of such convoys, and everything will come to a halt. And we can’t pull it off from the management side because of the current chaos.
These two reasons exist concurrently, although just one of them is enough to break everything.
With regards to Russian military losses: I don’t know the reality – no one does. There was some information the first 2 days, but now no one knows what is happening in Ukraine. We’ve lost contact with major divisions (!!) They may re-establish contact, or may dissipate under an attack, and even the commanders don’t know how many are dead, injured, or captured. Total dead is definitely in the thousands, maybe 10,000, maybe 5,000, or maybe just 2,000. But even at our command no one knows. But probably closer to 10,000. And we are not counting losses at DNR & LNR.
Now even we kill Zelensky or take him prisoner, nothing will change. The level of hate toward us is similar to Chechnya. And now, even those loyal to us in Ukraine are publicly against us.
Because all of this was planned at the top (in Russia), because we were told that such a scenario will not happen except only if we were to be attacked first. Because we were told that we need to maximize our threats in order to negotiate an outcome through peace. Because we were already preparing protests against Zelensky without ever considering invading Ukraine.
Now, civilian losses in Ukraine will follow a geometric pattern progression, and resistance against us will only get stronger. Infantries already tried to enter cities – out of 20 paratrooper groups, only one had “provisional” success. Recall the invasion of Mosul – it’s a rule – happens with every country, nothing new.
To hold a siege? Over the last decades in Europe – Serbia being the best example, cities can remain functional under siege for years.
Humanitarian convoys from Europe to Ukraine is only a matter of time.
Our conditional deadline is June. Conditional because in June there will be no economy left in Russia – there will be nothing left. By and large, next week there will be a collapse (in Russia) to either of the two sides, simply because the situation cannot remain under current conditions.
We have no analyses, we can’t make any forecasts in this chaos, no one will be able to say anything with any certainty (in Russia).
To act through intuition, especially with high emotions, this is no poker game. But our bets will have to grow in size with hope that some option will succeed.
The tragedy is that we can easily miscalculate, and as a result lose everything.
By and large, Russia does not have an out. There are no options for a possible victory, only of losses – this is it.
100% we’ve repeated our mistake from last century, when we decided to kick the “weak” Japan in order to achieve a quick victory, and it turned our army was in a state of total calamity. Then, we started a war till the victorious end, then we started conscripting the Bolsheviks for re-education in the army. Then these barely-known Bolsheviks picked up their anti-war slogans.
From the pluses: We did everything to ensure there wasn’t even a hint that we sent penal military units to the front. If you conscript political prisoners and the socially undesirables, the moral spirit of the army will be in the negative.
The enemy is motivated. Monstrously motivated. Knows how to fight, plenty of capable commanders. They have weapons and support. We will simply establish a precedent of human catastrophe in the world.
What we are afraid of the most: The top is trying to mask old problems with new problems. Largely for this reason Donbass happened in 2014 – We needed to distract the West from the Russian Spring in Crimea, so Donbass’ so-called crisis had to pull in all of the attention and become a bargaining chip. But even bigger problems started there. Then we decided to pressure Erdogan to get 4 pipes for the Southern Stream (gas) and entered Syria. This is after Suleimani (Islamic Revolutionary Guard) knowingly provided false info to us to solve his own problems.
As a result, we couldn’t resolve the problem with Crimea, and Donbass’ problems didn’t go away. Southern Stream was reduced to 2 pipes (gas), and Syria is hanging – we leave and Assad will be toppled and we will look like idiots, and staying there is hard and pointless.
I don’t know who come up with the “Blitzkrieg of Ukraine.” Had received all the real inputs, we would have at minimum pointed out that the initial plan is arguable, and that much has to be reassessed. A lot had to be reassessed.
Now we are in crap (PG language mine) up to our necks, and we don’t know what to do. “Denazification” and “demilitarization” are not analytical categories because they don’t have concretely formulated parameters by which meeting of the objectives can be evaluated.
Now we are stuck waiting until some mentally screwed up advisor convinces the top to start a conflict with Europe, with demands to reduce the sanctions – they either loosen the sanctions or war. What if the West refuses? In that instance I won’t exclude that we will be pulled into a real international conflict, just like Hitler in 1939. Our “Z” will be equated to the Swastika.
Is there a possibility of a localized nuclear strike? Yes. Not for any military objectives. Such a weapon won’t help with the breach of the defenses. But with a goal of scaring everyone else (The West).
We are plowing to create a scenario in which to blame everything on Ukraine. Naryshkin (Director of Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia) and his SVR is digging the ground to prove that Ukraine was secretly building nuclear weapons. F*&K. They are hammering at what we’ve already analyzed and closed the book on: We can’t just make up any evidence or proof and existence of specialists and Uranium. Ukraine has a ton of depleted isotope 238 – this is nothing. The production cycle is such that you can’t do it in secret.
A dirty bomb can’t be created in secret. Ukraine’s old nuclear power plants can only produce the material as a by-product in minimal amounts. The Americans have such monitoring at these plants with MAGATE that even talking about this is stupid.
Do you know what will start in a week? Let’s let it be even in 2 weeks. We are going to be so screwed we will start reminiscing about the good ol’ hungry days of the 90s. As the markets are being closed, Nabiullina appears to be taking the right steps, but it’s like plugging holes on a ship with your fingers. The situation will break through anyway and even stronger. Nothing will be solved in 3 or 5 or 7 days any longer.
Kadyrov is kicking his hoofs not without reason. They have their own adventures. He created a name for himself as the invincible – and if he falls down once his own people will remove him.
Next. Syria. “Guys – hold on, everything will end in Ukraine and then we will fortify our positions in Syria.” And now at any moment our contingent stationed there may run out of resources, and then ridiculous heat will come…. Turkey is closing the strait, and sending supplies to Syria by air is the same as heating an oven with cash. Please notice – this is all happening at the same time, and we don’t even have time to throw it all in one pile for analysis.
Our current position is like Germany in 1943-1944 – but that’s our STARTING position in Ukraine.
Sometimes I get lost in this overwork, sometimes feels as if this is just a dream and all is as it was before.
With regards to prisons – it will be worse. The nuts will start to get tightened till blood. Everywhere. To be frank, purely technically, this is the only way to maintain any control of the situation. We are already in total mobilization mode. But we can’t remain in this mode for long, but our timetables are unknown, and it will only get worse. Governance always goes astray from mobilization. And just imagine: You can sprint 100m – but try that in a marathon.
And so, with the Ukrainian question we lunged as if going for a 100m sprint, but turned out we’d signed up for a marathon.
And this is a rather brief overview of the current events.
To offer further cynicism, I don’t believe that Putin will press the red button to destroy the entire world.
First, it’s not one person that decides, and someone will refuse. There are lots of people there and there is no single “red” button.
Second, there are certain doubts that it actually functions properly. Experience shows that the more transparent the control procedures, the easier it is to identify problems. And where it’s mirky as to who controls what and how, but always reports full of bravado, is where there are always problems.
I am not sure that the “red button” system functions according to the declared data. Besides, plutonium fuel must be changed every 10 years.
Third, and this is the most disgusting and sad, I personally do not believe in Putin’s will to sacrifice himself when he does not even allow his closest ministers and advisors to be in his vicinity. Whether it’s due to his fear of COVID or a possible assassination is irrelevant. If you are scared for the most trusted people to be near you, then how could you possibly choose to destroy yourself and those dearest to you.
No właśnie. Według mnie ta wojna potrwa maksymalnie pół roku.
Pytanie, co chce osiągnąć NATO i ile zainwestuje w osiągnięcie swoich celów rękoma Ukraińców. Jeśli gra o wszystko, to ta wojna będzie toczyć się o całość Ukrainy w jej dawnych granicach, włącznie z Donbasem i Krymem. Do zyskania jest przecież nawet wyparcie Rosjan z Krymu i ostateczna utrata przez nich bazy morskiej w Sewastopolu, aby ich obecność na Morzu Czarnym osłabła.
Optymistyczny end game, to branie głodem wspomnianego miasta i zerwanie połączenia przez Kercz. Chciałbym zobaczyć jak duma putinowskiej architektury ostatecznie ląduje w wodzie. Ale ten most pewnie jest teraz bardzo dobrze broniony i trudno będzie go teraz wykończyć, nawet jeśli przydałoby się to zrobić jak najszybciej.
Być może jego istnienie i połączenie za jego pomocą Krymu z Rosją okaże się tematem rozmów dyplomatycznych, jeśli wojna pójdzie koncertowo nie po myśli Rosji. Jego pozostawienie byłoby oznaką dobrej woli ze strony Ukraińców, o ile w Kerczu pojawiłoby się normalne przejście graniczne. Jeżeli Ukraińcy w ogóle nie zamierzają współpracować z Rosją po wojnie, destrukcja tego mostu może okazać się symbolicznym aktem zerwania więzów z Moskwą na dobre.
Jak sądzę, jest dokładnie odwrotnie. Podczas kryzysu 1997 roku jednak nikt nie odcinał Rosji od świata, społeczeństwa na Zachodzie nie sprzysięgły się do jakichś totalnych bojkotów, ani nie były mobilizowane do jej zagłodzenia, aby wymusić tam wewnętrzne zmiany. To jest zupełnie inna skala izolacji i problemów wewnętrznych. Tym razem to Zachód zakłada Żelazną Kurtynę, spychając Rosjan w autarkię, na jaką oni nie są przygotowani i nie za bardzo widzę, aby w najbliższym czasie mogli się oni zupełnie przestawić na współpracę z Chińczykami.
Wyraźne uznanie ich za dzikusów bliższych Azji niż Europejczyków z prawdziwego zdarzenia, zepchnięcie ich do roli kolejnej Korei Północnej, wiszącej na garnuszku Chin to olbrzymie upokorzenie. Ale oni muszą się jeszcze oswoić z tą myślą i zobaczyć degradację życia po skończeniu współpracy z Zachodem, żeby to odniosło skutek. Dajmy im czas.
Już nie mają szans zajęcia Ukrainy na dobre. Jeśli chcą poświęcać na to kolejne 7 lat, to będzie to gorejący konflikt w rodzaju wojny w Afganistanie, w którą wdepną i nie bedą mogli wyjść jak Amerykanie.
ckl78
Well-Known Member
- 1 881
- 2 033
- Moderator
- #326
- 8 902
- 25 794
Główny mózg Konfy przemówił.
kr2y510
konfederata targowicki
- 12 770
- 24 728
Fb pierdololo. Nie wiem co tam powiedział, bo nie mam konta na Fb, a strona wyświetla mi:
Cannot load Facebook SDK. Disable any adblocker or tracking protection and try again.
Czy oni nie mogą tego dawać na YT, BitChute, Ruble lub inny normalny serwis?
Blobfish
Well-Known Member
- 151
- 280
Bardzo rozsądnie. Może poza wstępem który wprowadza w błąd sugerując, że Blinken namawia do zaangażowania polskiego ootnictwa wojskowego w działania nad Ukrainą.
- Admin
- #329
- 6 985
- 15 153
Nie, bo to dodatkowa robota.
tolep
five miles out
- 8 585
- 15 483
ublock. wyłącz.
tolep
five miles out
- 8 585
- 15 483
MaxStirner
Well-Known Member
- 2 781
- 4 723
Berkowicz ma Telegrama (dopiero teraz to odkrylem, aktywna promocja), ale ma tam trzy tygodnie stary post, jakby umarl z wysilku po prostu od ich kopiowania z fb. Po co ktos ma go tam sledzic?
Jak ktos tego nie traktuje powaznie, to niech se da spokój.
Jak ktos tego nie traktuje powaznie, to niech se da spokój.
Ostatnia edycja:
Blobfish
Well-Known Member
- 151
- 280
Ciekawe czy Ruski użyją przeciw Ukrainie taktycznej broni jądrowej. Wydaje mi się, że jeśli dalej będą przegrywać to jest to bardzo bardzo prawdopodobne. Mięsci się w ich doktrynie użycia broni jądrowej, pozwoli błyskawicznie wygrać kompromitującą ich wojnę i jest o tyle "bezpieczne" że nie wiąże się z ryzykiem atomowego odwetu NATO.
ckl78
Well-Known Member
- 1 881
- 2 033
Putin może. Ale nie wszystko może. - i z każdym dniem coraz mniej.
kompowiec
freetard
- 2 580
- 2 646
albo wcześniej go zajebią:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZlFmeMlb7q0
jestem też ciekaw jak wyjaśnią swoim towarzyszom dlaczego nikt nie chce z nimi grać w gałę
ckl78
Well-Known Member
- 1 881
- 2 033
Frosty2
Twój lekarz poleca papierosy Malboro
- 394
- 222
Setki tirów wciąż jedzie przez Polskę na Białoruś. Z żywnością i lekami dla rosyjskiego wojska.
Wyborcza.pl
lublin.wyborcza.pl
Blobfish
Well-Known Member
- 151
- 280
kompowiec
freetard
- 2 580
- 2 646
informacje z frontu to czerpie z
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5qQIBIqWDs
oraz
Timeline of the Russian invasion of Ukraine - Wikipedia
Frosty2
Twój lekarz poleca papierosy Malboro
- 394
- 222
Wiceszef MSW Ukrainy: kraj będą odbudowywać rosyjscy jeńcy
Rosyjscy jeńcy wojenni, wzięci do niewoli podczas inwazji Rosji na Ukrainę, będą traktowani zgodnie z normami międzynarodowego prawa humanitarnego, a później będą pracować na rzecz odbudowy ukraińskiej gospodarki - powiedział we wtorek wiceminister spraw wewnętrznych Ukrainy Jewhen Jenin.
www.polsatnews.pl